A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
