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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd